Jet Forecast for Sep 25 thru oct 2 2003-the forecast was produced Sep 25 2003 -
Forecast
tropical storm Juan is forecast to stall a few days and then be absorbed by a trough to the east - a strong under cutting jet on the west coast is forecast to bring heavy rain to northern california - utah ( note: this forecast was a bust )
Oct 13-17 2003
a strong trough moves(blasts) into west( central california-nevada )Oct 18-24
trough becomes diffluent and bigins retrograde southwest - upper levels heights should be deep enough to bring snow to many southwest locations- low deepens and devides as magor trough forms over midwest- although upper level temperatures are not exceptionally cold- the heights are very deep with the 540-545 line running up the midwest- a magor fall rain-snow storm is forecast

East-this period continues much the same as last with some changes, most notable feature is still the low over texas(28.80) with positive lift at both lower and upper levels and with very strong upper level divergence, this has been the cause of all the rain in the east and parts of the midwest - the last forecast period, but the mid central and east has a zone of negative lift running thru it witch will provide a much larger number of days of fair weather than last period - so continued above normal precip for texas thru florida and the northeast - with precip thru the zone passing from colorado thru to the east coast showing a marked decrease from last period
there is also a tvc(thermal vorticity connection)(8)- this wind warning applies to the upper east coast and west - much above normal precipitation is forecast - for the texas - gulf states and the upper east coast
west - will see a heavier amounts of precip this period than last, but will be spotty as the general lift is negative over this area, threat of high winds from thunder showers also exists.


upper northwest coast - canada- will continue wet
Forecast Sep 13 2003 to mar 15 2004
East wet period is over (total precip)(there will many days - above average - of light showers and clouds - they just will not produce much water)- done - finished - very weak(lift) tropical low pressure over south east and very weak(lift)sub-polar over most but not all of the rest of the east - the exception is the extreme east upper east coast(very wet here) - the west should have enough troughs and lift to produce near normal precip both north and south

the most notable feature is the low over texas(28.80) with positive lift at both lower and upper levels and with the subtropic and subpolar jet combined
there is also a tvc(thermal vorticity connection)(8) in the same general area(a little to the west)- much above normal precipitation, and high winds are forecast
the west has a downward sloping mild low pressure gradient across it with two jet tracks, and is under the strong tvc(the tvc center is west of texas, but extends westward to the coast)- but the air at the upper and lower levels has negative lift- frequent frontal passages with strong winds are forecast here, but dryer than normal precipitation, much above normal wind
midwest-central east are in a mild high pressure zone- below normal precipitation is forecast here

upper east coast has a mild low, upper level negative lift but positive lift at the surface- cool and wet here, normal or above normal precipitation, a similar low is over upper montana

this an upper(above 15,000ft) and lower level(below 15,000ft) map showing jet position and lift phase(negative or positive)-

of course the phase is specific to thermal or vorticity lift( the map may refer to either one at present)

the thermal vorticity connection(tvc) is shown on the map as defining wind potential

the upper to surface connection(usc) is shown and corresponds to thickness

the pressures are upper level and barometric- the average person can relate to these- upper level constant pressure/constant height maps are fine for those who understand them

moueseover the green "clear" command before selecting a text forecast previous to the one being shown( what your reading now) if needed
the text forecasts and maps will load forwardly beginning at seasonal, daily, el nino, tutorials, but the text forecast field may or may not load backwardly unless the forecast field is first cleared - if all the needed code will load okay - the links will work

the seasonal and el nino maps will correspond to the same time periods and should be used in tandem
the daily maps will go forwards from the present date about ninety days, by loading one of them you can see what time period your looking for

Posted 3/27/2003
wind, this part of the forecast has verified well so far, as a large increase in post frontal wind has been observed over the west, post frontal winds lasting 2 days or more, well above normal

Posted June/22/03
Errors:
the low shown over upper montana sould have been farther west to the coast, and precipitation in the east should have forecast being heavier than it was, although the very strong low(28.--) over texas was correct (the low manifested as very strong upper level divergence - more than low pressure itself though)- taken as a whole this was a fairly good forecast - if compared to the various goverment forecasts - it was even better than fairly good - the above statments apply to the March 13 2003 to June 17 2003 period
Posted July 24 2003
the forecast for the summer in the west could have been better - mainly for more high pressure as there have been almost no frontal passages